What to watch for in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

From a thrilling fight at the front to Lando Norris climbing through the field and from another chance of big points for Carlos Sainz to a statistical certainty that could create a huge amount of uncertainty, here are five things to keep an eye on when the lights go out on race day in Jeddah …

An epic battle for the win?

If qualifying was anything to go by, we are in for an absolute classic when it comes to the race this weekend.

Saturday night saw drama, skill, and a fantastic battle for pole position that was ultimately won by Max Verstappen by just 0.010s.

It was a brilliant lap from the Dutchman but it wasn’t as if the opposition weren’t producing some fine performances themselves, with Oscar Piastri so close to a third pole of the season and George Russell right in the fight, too.

With Verstappen on pole, recent history should make him the favourite to win the race given all four winners this season – or five if you include Lewis Hamilton in the Sprint in China – have started from P1 on the grid. But unlike Suzuka, this is a track where you can overtake, so he is likely to face a stronger challenge from behind.

Piastri will still fancy his chances but Verstappen is so experienced at leading races and defending robustly, so that could well keep Russell in play too. Add in the fine margins around the Jeddah Corniche Circuit and whoever wins this one is going to have to really earn it.

Leclerc and Hamilton trying to get in the mix

Starting fourth isn’t a bad place for Charles Leclerc to be but the Ferrari driver was disappointed on Saturday night because he believes he got everything out of his car and was still over 0.3s adrift of Verstappen in qualifying.

The Ferrari race pace also seems to be lacking a little but Leclerc was able to deliver a strong third place at this track last year and sees the current performance being good enough that he might be hold onto a higher position if he makes a strong start, so expect to see him get his elbows out.

For his teammate Hamilton, a tough Friday and FP3 gave way to a more encouraging qualifying session as he managed to make progress to secure seventh on the grid and with it a chance of strong points.

In reality, the key to Hamilton’s race could well be clearing Carlos Sainz early on, with the Williams starting one place ahead of him and with the potential to hold him up. If he can do that, then it’s only Kimi Antonelli in a quick Mercedes between himself and Leclerc, and if the fight at the front remains wide open, perhaps all three can stay in contention.

Norris facing a fight to the front

If Leclerc is going to have his elbows out on Sunday night, then so too is Lando Norris after such a disappointing end to what had been a very encouraging qualifying session.

Norris appeared to be making steps with his McLaren that left him more comfortable as the weekend was progressing and he was very much in the fight for pole position as Q3 began, but then made a mistake into Turn 4 and his chances ended in the wall.

The championship leader will start from 10th on the grid and with Verstappen – eight points behind – on pole position and Piastri – three adrift – in second, he faces a tall order to hold onto his position at the top of the standings come the chequered flag on Sunday night.

But Norris was frustrated after qualifying in Bahrain and was soon up to third place early on last weekend, despite struggling with the car’s handling at that point, so he will be after some more rapid progress here. In a quick car on a track where you can overtake, he’s likely to be moving forwards at some stage.

Williams in good shape as midfield remains tight

Norris, as well as Hamilton, could well end up filling the mirrors of Sainz in the first part of the race, after the Spaniard delivered his second strong qualifying performance in a row to secure sixth on the grid.

Sainz appears to be making progress with his Williams, and the way the car is set-up this weekend is expected to make it tough to overtake due to strong straight-line performance. That comes at the potential detriment of tyre usage through the corners but Sainz executed exactly what he needed to in qualifying to put himself right in the fight for points.

Pierre Gasly will also be a threat from ninth on the grid behind Yuki Tsunoda, while just outside the top 10 the likes of Alex Albon and Liam Lawson are lurking. Albon feels the timing of his Q2 lap cost him and he might be hurt more than Sainz by being in traffic, whereas Lawson is the most comfortable he’s felt since returning to the Racing Bulls team.

The New Zealander has yet to score this season but after out-qualifying Isack Hadjar for the first time with a strong lap, he’s within striking distance of the top 10 and growing in confidence with the car he first drove in Japan two weeks ago.

Safety Car twists

All of the drivers reference the nature of the Jeddah Corniche Circuit as one of the standout aspects of this race weekend, with the track claiming the tag-line of “the world’s fastest street circuit”.

With high-speed changes of direction, blind corners and walls that almost form the apex of certain turns, not only is it an exhilarating challenge over a qualifying lap but it provides plenty of opportunities to punish mistakes in a race, too.

The past four editions of the race in Jeddah have all featured at least one Safety Car period, with a total of five deployments from 2021 until now and that will certainly be factored into the way the teams go about planning their strategies.

But with Pirelli bringing the softest three tyre compounds to this race for the first time, there is an increased chance of a multi-stop race rather than a one-stop and that makes it far tougher to pick a strategy that has the best chance of benefitting from a Safety Car and can turn matters into a bit more of a lottery.

Even if the race looks relatively settled, we could only be one slight mistake away from any driver in the race for it to be turned completely on its head. It’s going to be fascinating …