World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the fourth round of the Rugby Europe Men's Championship this weekend.
The two highest ranked teams in the Rugby Europe Men’s Championship 2024, Georgia and Portugal – cannot improve their ratings with wins at home against the lower ranked Romania and Spain respectively.
However, Georgia, sitting seven places and 10.10 ratings points above Romania before home weighting is factored in, will surrender 13th place to Samoa if they lose and fail to qualify for the final in Paris on 17 March.
Likewise, Portugal will lose ground if they are they are beaten by Spain in the other semi-final with Tonga replacing them in 15th place. However, 16th is the lowest that Os Lobos can fall this week.
Georgia could drop as many as three places to 16th if they are beaten by more than 15 points by Romania in Tbilisi and Portugal defeat Spain.
Romania are not guaranteed a climb in the rankings even if they become the first team to beat Georgia in the Rugby Europe Men’s Championship since March 2017, unless Spain also lose to Portugal.
If Spain manage a narrow win in Lisbon then Romania must beat Georgia by more than 15 points to swap places with Los Leones above.
The Oaks cannot climb any higher than 19th, though, as Uruguay are too far ahead.
The same is true for Spain, although they could cut the gap to Los Teros above to less than a point if they beat Portugal by more than 15 points.
With just seven places and 5.70 rating points separating the teams involved in the fifth-place semi-finals – Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Poland – the results could have a significant impact on the rankings, especially if they go against the form book.
As Belgium can only pick up a maximum of 0.28 points for beating Germany in Waterloo, it is not possible for the Black Devils to improve on their present position of 28th.
However, defeat to Germany could see Belgium fall as low as 30th depending on the margin and the result of the Netherlands v Poland game.
By contrast, a victorious Germany will become the higher ranked of the two nations with a return to the top 30 for the first time since last March.
A four-place gain to 28th is possible if they win by more than 15 points and Poland upset the Netherlands in Amsterdam.
There are also only minimal gains to be had for a Netherlands win at home to a Poland team 4.71 points and five places below them.
The Dutch can only improve on 28th if they win and Belgium lose to Germany, a scenario which would see them gain one place.
However, defeat – depending on the margin and the result in Waterloo – could see the Netherlands drop as low as 32nd. They have not been outside the top 30 since November 2017.
Poland’s position could climb or fall by a couple of places depending on the outcome.
On the match officials side: Peter Martin (Ireland) takes charge of the Georgia v Romania semi-final, his first Test since his debut in the middle since November 2021.
Inigo Atorrasagasti (Spain) will referee the Netherlands v Poland in Amsterdam. Both teams are yet to lose with Atorrasagasti in the middle.
Sam Grove-White (Scotland) will referee Germany for the first time as they take on Belgium in Waterloo in the fifth place semi-final.
Benoît Rousselet (France) makes his Rugby Europe Men's Championship debut with the Portugal v Spain semi-final.
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